#18 Mississippi State at Ole Miss Preview: Rivalry Matchup Could Be Trap Game

January 18, 2012

News, Sports

Locations: Oxford, Mississippi

Time: 8 pm Central

TV: CSS, ESPN3

Radio: 107.9 FM, WFCA, French Camp Radio

Listen Online: http://tunein.com/radio/WFCA-1079-s28690/

Initial Analysis: The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into their matchup against in-state rival Ole Miss looking to start their second winning streak of the season. The game is expected to be a blow out, but I think it has the potential to be a “Trap Game”. The Rebels are better than their 11-6 record indicates, and they match up well with the Bulldogs.

2011 Current Team Stats

Ole Miss

Scoring Per Game: 66.0

Scoring Allowed Per Game: 63.9

Field Goal Percentage: 41.9

3 Point Percentage: 27.0

Rebounds Per Game: 39.8

Blocks Per Game: 5.9

Steals Per Game: 6.9

Assists Per Game: 11.3

Mississippi State

Scoring Per Game: 73.8

Scoring Allowed Per Game: 64.1

Field Goal Percentage: 46.8

3 Point Percentage: 34.5

Rebounds Per Game: 37.1

Blocks Per Game: 4.2

Steals Per Game: 6.8

Assists Per Game: 12.9

Team Breakdowns

Ole Miss

Andy Kennedy

Andy Kennedy

Coach: Andy Kennedy

Big Wins: Arkansas

The Andy Kennedy-led Ole Miss Rebels are a team that build themselves around a solid frontcourt. They also possess good length, with every player on the roster being listed at 6’4 and over.

Offensively, the Rebels have a balanced scoring attack, and they don’t try to do too much. They play for the smart shot, but if nothing there, the ball is dumped inside.

Defensively, the Rebels use a 2-3 zone, where they take advantage of their length. Reginald Buckner erases most of the mistakes that the Rebels perimeter defenders make on defense.

The Rebels’ length up front should give the Bulldogs trouble all night.

Mississippi State

Rick Stansbury

Rick Stansbury

Coach: Rick Stansbury

Big Wins: Arizona, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Alabama

The Rick Stansbury-led Mississippi State Bulldogs are built around the inside play of Arnett Moultrie, and the playmaking of Dee Bost. They do have other playmakers in Renardo Sidney and Rodney Hood. They also have Deville Smith, who pushes the tempo once he gets in the game.

Offensively, the Bulldogs like to play inside-out. If the offense is not flowing, they will try to pick and roll — the big men either crash to the basket or flex out for a jumper.

Defensively, the Bulldogs try to disrupt the passing lanes with Dee Bost, Rodney Hood, and Brian Bryant. They normally play man to man defense, but they will occasionally switch to zone when the situation presents itself.

The Bulldog guards will definitely have the advantage talent-wise over the Ole Miss guards.

Projected Lineups

Mississippi State

C: Renardo Sidney 10.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.8 bpg

PF: Arnett Moultrie 16.5 ppg, 10.9 rpg

SF: Rodney Hood 11.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, .415 3pt %

SG: Jalen Steele 6.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg

PG: Dee Bost 16.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.3 apg

Key Reserves: Brian Bryant 7.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg; Wendell Lewis 5.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 bpg; Deville Smith 5.7 ppg, 2.5 apg

Team Leaders

Points: Moultrie 16.5

Rebounds: Moultrie 10.9

Blocks: Lewis 1.3

Steals: Bost 2.3

Assists: Bost 4.3

Ole Miss

C: Reginald Buckner 5.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.7 bpg

PF: Murphy Holloway 10.6 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.6 spg

SF: Terrance Henry 10.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg

SG: Jalen Kendrick 4.3 ppg, 1.8 spg

PG: Jarvis Summers 10.8 ppg, 3.1 apg

Key Reserves: Nick Williams 9.1 ppg, 3.8 apg; Demarco Cox 3.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg

Team Leaders

Points: Summers 10.8

Rebounds: Holloway 10.0

Blocks: Buckner 2.7

Steals: Kendrick 1.8

Assists: Summers 3.1

Players To Watch

Ole Miss

Reginald Buckner

Reginald Buckner

Reginald Buckner: Buckner could be huge tomorrow, holding Moultrie in check and disrupting penetration from the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State

Renardo Sidney

Renardo Sidney

Renardo Sidney: Sidney could be the X-Factor in this matchup. He is the one player the Rebels can’t match up with on the Bulldogs’ roster. If he gets the proper touches in the post, he could have 20-plus points.

Three Keys To Victory

Ole Miss

1. Go Man: The Rebels normally like to zone, but the Bulldogs could take advantage of that with their three-point shooting. The Rebels need to go man to keep the Bulldogs from killing them from the outside.

2. Disrupt Penetration: The Bulldogs like to penetrate, and the Rebels must prevent them from splitting their defense.

3. Swarm Moultrie: Moultrie struggles passing out of double teams, and the Rebels need to exploit that weakness.

Mississippi State

1. Get Shaun Smith Minutes: Stansbury must get Smith minutes at some point, and this game would be the perfect opportunity with the Rebels’ huge roster.

2. Feed Sidney: The Rebels can’t stop Sidney, and he must get 10 to 15 shots tonight.

3. Press Ole Miss Guards: The Ole Miss guards don’t control the ball very well, and the Bulldogs must press them and force them to make poor decisions.

 

Final Analysis: The game with the Bulldogs will be a hotly contested one, but I expect the Bulldogs to pull the game out. If the Bulldogs take the Rebels lightly, though, then they could be setting themselves up for a disappointing loss.

My Prediction: 70-62 Mississippi State

@JeremiahShort26

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